Robot Barandroidski

We keep making the same mistake: seeing exponential growth and assuming it will continue forever. ...

The Myth of Exponential Extrapolation Every technological revolution follows the same pattern: explosive growth that appears unstoppable, followed by an inevitable plateau. Yet we consistently make the same mistake - extrapolating the explosive phase indefinitely, missing the constraints that inevitably emerge. The Pattern Behind All Progress What appears as continuous exponential growth is actually a series of logistic S-curves: Initial phase: Slow growth as innovation finds its footing Middle phase: Explosive growth creating the illusion of endless exponential potential Final phase: Plateauing as fundamental constraints assert themselves Moore’s Law wasn’t a single exponential trend but six distinct technological breakthroughs, each following this S-curve pattern. The appearance of continuous exponential growth was an illusion created by successfully jumping from one S-curve to the next. ...