Rob Baranowski

The Essence of Shinto

Thu, 18 Sep 2025 00:00:00 +0000

I learned something. What about you?

Favorite Authors

Mon, 16 Jun 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Almost all they write is gold

object

Wed, 11 Jun 2025 00:00:00 +0000

it is what it is

Principles

Wed, 11 Jun 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Pearls of Wisdom

bathin'

Tue, 10 Jun 2025 00:00:00 +0000

I know how you feel, Theo

How the Meiji Restoration Bought in Elites

Tue, 10 Jun 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Pitch & Preview

Exponential Delusion

Fri, 30 May 2025 00:00:00 +0000

We keep making the same mistake: seeing exponential growth and assuming it will continue forever.

Myth Of Exponential Extrapolation

Fri, 30 May 2025 00:00:00 +0000

The Myth of Exponential Extrapolation

Every technological revolution follows the same pattern: explosive growth that appears unstoppable, followed by an inevitable plateau. Yet we consistently make the same mistake - extrapolating the explosive phase indefinitely, missing the constraints that inevitably emerge.

The Pattern Behind All Progress

What appears as continuous exponential growth is actually a series of logistic S-curves:

Initial phase: Slow growth as innovation finds its footing
Middle phase: Explosive growth creating the illusion of endless exponential potential
Final phase: Plateauing as fundamental constraints assert themselves

Moore’s Law wasn’t a single exponential trend but six distinct technological breakthroughs, each following this S-curve pattern. The appearance of continuous exponential growth was an illusion created by successfully jumping from one S-curve to the next.